SurveyUSA: Northup slices into Yarmuth’s lead

A new public poll of Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District race shows former U.S. Rep Anne Northup (R-Louisville) digging into U.S. Rep John Yarmuth's (D-Louisville) advantage. While an early June poll gave Yarmuth a seventeen point cushion in the race, the newest numbers from SurveyUSA/WHAS find the incumbent's lead cut to ten points.

Yarmuth leads 53 to 43 percent over Northup among 621 "likely voters" according to the poll conducted from July 18 to July 20. Three percent of respondents indicated they were "undecided."

The margin of error on the new poll is plus or minus four percent.

Northup's numbers have boosted upwards since a poll conducted from June 6 to June 8 found her down to Yarmuth, 57 to 40 percent. Three percent were "undecided" then as well.

It should be noted that the earlier poll was rejected by Northup's camp as "extremely flawed" in a memo released after the numbers were revealed.

Northup has narrowed polling gaps in several demographics since the last poll. While Yarmuth still holds a massive 68 point lead among the African-American respondents - 15 percent of the most recent sample - Northup has made major gains among the district's white voters.

In June, Northup sat seven points behind Yarmuth among whites. In the most recent poll, she has erased that margin and climbed to a one point lead over the freshman incumbent.

Among Females, Northup's disadvantage has been cut to eleven points, after she was down 21 in that category in June.

Northup has almost completely closed a fourteen point gap among voters aged 35 to 49. She now sits just one point behind Yarmuth in that demographic.

Since securing her party's nomination after a dominant primary victory on May 20, Northup's campaign has extensively focused on gas prices as an issue, presenting expanded domestic oil exploration as a central solution to rising numbers at the pump.

Northup's campaign has already aired radio ads targeting Yarmuth for his opposition to new drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the outer continental shelf, among other places.

Yarmuth is also the target of a series of robocalls dispatched from the conservative policy advocacy group, Freedom's Watch. Those calls also focus on Yarmuth's opposition to that drilling.

Instead of supporting drilling in the aforementioned reserves, Yarmuth has supported 2 recent bills in the U.S. House that would require oil companies to drill on public lands upon which they currently hold a lease, or else face a fine. Both of those bills failed to pass.

Yarmuth also was part of a recent call to suspend investment in energy markets by speculators, a practice he said may account for 50 percent of recent oil price jumps.

The 2008 race in the 3rd District is a rematch of the 2006 battle between the two candidates. Then, Yarmuth unseated Northup - a five-term incumbent at the time - by three points, 51 to 48 percent.