Rothenberg reassesses chances for Boswell and Lunsford

With just over a month to go before the general election, noted national political analyst Stuart Rothenberg appears to be warming to the chances of two Kentucky Democrats embroiled in tough races.

Though he had declared the 2nd Congressional District race between state Sens. David Boswell (D-Owensboro) and Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green) to be "over" if Boswell did not improve his financial standings against Guthrie, Rothenberg now holds that the recent investment by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in support of Boswell could swing the race.

Boswell is the beneficiary of an $840,000 DCCC ad buy and was recently added to the organization's Red-to-Blue list as a candidate in a race targeted for Democratic pick-up. 

"Now, with the DCCC's help, it looks like Boswell could win despite a cash disadvantage to Guthrie," wrote Rothenberg on Friday. "But Boswell's road is still tough, considering he will have to run well ahead of Obama at the top of the ticket because Kentucky was one of the Illinois Senator's worst-performing states in the Democratic primaries."

The latest public polling in the race, released last week, showed Guthrie with a 6 point lead over Boswell - the first lead he has shown in public polling. 

At the same time, recent poll swings in Kentucky's U.S. Senate race showing a tightening margin between U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) and Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford apparently encouraged Rothenberg to recalibrate his prediction for that race.

Earlier speculating that McConnell had a "clear advantage" in the race, Rothenberg wrote today that a SurveyUSA poll giving McConnell a three point edge and a Mason-Dixon poll giving the incumbent just a one point lead changed the picture.

Rothenberg now says McConnell has a "narrow advantage" against Lunsford, but added that "we would not argue with anyone who rated the contest as a Toss-Up."