Rasmussen: McConnell up 9 points over Lunsford

The rollercoaster poll performance of the candidates in Kentucky's U.S. Senate race continues today, as a new survey from Rasmussen Reports indicates U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) is holding a nine point lead over challenger Bruce Lunsford (D-Louisville). While Lunsford has narrowed the margin in polls from that firm, the numbers show a different scenario for the Democrat than two recent polls which showed him in a closer race with the incumbent.

Rasmussen's poll of 500 "likely" voters, conducted on Sept. 30, gives McConnell a 51 to 42 percent lead over Lunsford, with 2 percent of respondents choosing "other" - though no other candidates are on the ballot - and 5 percent indicating they were "not sure" of their choice.

Rasmussens's last poll of the Kentucky race, from late July, have McConnell a 12 point lead, 50 to 38 percent. Since that survey, however, other firms have shown the state swinging towards Lunsford. SurveyUSA recently gave McConnell just a three point lead in a poll conducted from Sept. 21 to 22, and Mason-Dixon Polling conducted from Sept. 22 to 25 found McConnell with just a one point lead.

These poll numbers, released in recent days, were referenced by several national political analysts as evidence that the race was tightening. Lunsford's camp also cited coverage of the polls today to claim "momentum" was shifting the Democrat's way.

The newest figures from Rasmussen find Lunsford slightly falling short of benchmarks he said would ensure that McConnell "cannont win" - namely his proposition that if he caught 75 percent of support from Democrats, 10 percent from Republicans, and 50 percent of independents, he would beat McConnell.

The Rasmussen numbers find McConnell collecting 88 percent of Republican support, while Lunsford grabs 68 percent of Democrats and 47 percent of "unaffiliated" respondents.

Favorability ratings included in the poll show 43 percent of respondents rating Lunsford as either "very" or "somewhat" favorable and 56 percent reaching that conclusion on McConnell. 52 percent of respondents found Lunsford "somewhat" or "very" unfavorable, while 40 percent said the same of McConnell.

Rasmussen's first poll of the race showed Lunsford up 5 percent, back in late May. That poll was rejected by McConnell's camp as "bogus" and refuted with internal polls giving McConnell a double-digit lead.