Herald-Leader poll gives Clinton 27-point lead

On the eve of presidential candidate and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's (D-Ill.) first visit to the state in over eight months, a new poll commissioned by the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT finds Obama sitting 27 points behind his opponent, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), in the Bluegrass State.

Among 500 "probable Democratic voters," Clinton garners 58 percent support to Obama's 31 percent. Six percent of voters said they would select an "other" choice, while five indicated they were "undecided."

The poll also asked respondents what they would do if their candidate of choice did not secure the Democratic nomination. 62 percent of respondents said they would support their party's nominee, while 28 percent said they would switch to presumptive Republican nominee and U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Five percent of respondents would "stay home," while another five were unsure of what they would do.

A corresponding second poll commissioned by the same outlet also shows McCain handily beating either Democrat in November's general election.

McCain holds a 58 to 33 percent lead over Obama in a hypothetical general election match-up and a 53 to 41 percent lead over Clinton. That poll questioned 600 likely voters across the state.

Earlier match-up polls showed McCain in a tight race with Clinton in the state, holding only a two point advantage. Against Obama, McCain was ahead by over thirty points in the Commonwealth.

In recent weeks, some Democrats have been pushing the argument that Kentucky can be won by their presidential candidate -- a feat last accomplished in 1996.

In his last visit to the state, John McCain even went so far as to call Kentucky a "swing state."

For the Democratic primary poll, the margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percent. The general election poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

The poll was conducted from May 7 to May 9 by the firm Research 2000, based out of Olney, Md.

For Obama's campaign, the numbers actually show a slight boost in support. The latest poll from SurveyUSA showed Clinton ahead 62 to 28 percent in Kentucky.

Favorability ratings do not seem to play a huge role in deciding who Democrats selected as their choice in the poll. 61 percent of respondents rated Clinton either "very favorable" or favorable," while the same was true for 54 percent of respondents - a margin far smaller than the actually gap in selection poll.

Such a gap could indicate Obama has room to move up in the state, although time is short. Kentucky's Democratic primary falls on May 20.

In that interim period, Obama has scheduled two stops in the state -- one in Louisville this evening and a second in Lexington tomorrow.

For her part, Clinton made her second campaign visit to the state last Friday at a Kentucky Democratic Party fundraiser in Louisville.

EARLIER on PolitickerKY.com:

• Mongiardo endorses Obama's candidacy
• KDP Fundraiser: Clinton says Kentucky has 'huge role' on May 20